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Curry Chat => talk about anything other than curry => Topic started by: Bob-A-Job on March 24, 2019, 01:46 AM

Title: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Bob-A-Job on March 24, 2019, 01:46 AM
I think this is about as emotive on a planetary scale as Brexit is on a local level for us Brits.

I have seen, read, and media has published and promoted every view 'against' Climate Change and Brexit, possibly because it that is the 'popular' stance.

Homosapien have not been on the planet long, industry for even less and records for barely a second.  So scientists look to the geological record that the planet has recorded for us.  Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis to name just a few.  Some can make educated guesses, like the growth of flora and fauna based on oxygen levels, humidity and planetary temperatures.  We know for a fact that warming seas are killing some of those very flora and fauna and causing fish and mammals to migrate.

Governments don't want to believe in Climate Change, they don't actually say it, but they can't 'afford' to change and so they ignore and resist every change put forward by the scientific community it seems. They play 'lip service' with recycling, cycle routes, power produced from incinerating household waste whilst still allowing the exploitation and selling of fossil fuels, home and abroad.

The late Professor Stephen Hawking was very much respected and may have influenced some in the right places. in his assertion that as a species we must expand from this planet to guarantee Human existance.

Now, Sir David Attenborough (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-47666007) (92 years old) is to address us on Climate Change.

If there is one person who's voice might be heard, maybe it is his but against Business, Corporations and Governments, it may all be over bar the "I told you so" to come in the next decades, the same decades that we seem more concerned about whether we belong to a European 'Club' rather than a planetary one.  Bizarre!

I have given you some views and facts as I see them, now your thoughts please.

BAJ

P.S.  I post this because BIR/AIR/USIR will all be effected in years/decades to come as the the availability of oils, herbs and spices, like farming, are subject to climate change.  I can't quite grow a Curry Tree "up North" as somebody alluded to recently but I might be able to soon or my children might be able to (we already have Palm Trees).  8)
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: jalfreziT on March 24, 2019, 05:17 AM
I don’t really have a firm opinion on whether it (humans causing climate change) is real. The main reason why not is that there are few unadulterated facts available.

The whole subject is clouded by politics, emotions, fanaticism and “modelling” that’s required constant re-work because it hasn’t been very accurate.

The media also speaks with only one voice and that smells suspicious. Anyone who questions climate change is attacked and labelled negatively , in a similar way to those questioning mass immigration being immediately labelled as a Nazi, before their view is even heard.

But two facts that are available:

1. Nobody knows for sure that we are heading for climate Armageddon. The only things available are “theories”, and there was once a theory that the earth was flat.

2. Whatever measures we take now, there is no way of ever knowing whether we were successful.

Because of number 1, anyone giving their opinion on the subject is simply basing it on “faith” that the evidence they’ve heard is true.

What should we do, assuming “nothing” isn’t an option?

One approach is that it’s better to try to tackle the problem, just in case it really turns out to be catastrophic.

The second would be to accept that the climate is changing, for whatever reason, but instead spend the money on technologies that will help us cope with the world in the future.


Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on March 24, 2019, 07:56 AM
Both posts raise many interesting points, but I would like to address just a couple :

What should we do, assuming “nothing” isn’t an option?

Well, it is an option, but I don't think it would be a wise one.

Quote
One approach is that it’s better to try to tackle the problem, just in case it really turns out to be catastrophic.

That, however, would seem a wise option to me.

Quote
The second would be to accept that the climate is changing, for whatever reason, but instead spend the money on technologies that will help us cope with the world in the future.

It is not "us" that matters; it is the planet, and all the species thereon.  God may have "[given] Man dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over the cattle, and over all the earth, and over every creeping thing that creepeth upon the earth", but when one has dominion, one also has responsibility, and our primary responsibility in my opinion is to do everything in our power to ensure that our actions do not have an adverse impact on the countless other species with which we share this planet.

** Phil.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: jalfreziT on March 24, 2019, 08:19 AM
... and our primary responsibility in my opinion is to do everything in our power to ensure that our actions do not have an adverse impact on the countless other species with which we share this planet.

I agree with you. In fact I'm guessing many/most people, if asked, would agree too.

But the problem is that most people have a deep chasm between their ideology and their actions.

Last year Brits took an average of 1,6 holidays abroad per person. That equates to 106 million holidays abroad, many of them will have been using planes.

Put as a blunt question, how many people are willing to forego their 2 weeks in Benidorm, and instead use the money to insulate their home properly? The statistics say, "not many".
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on March 24, 2019, 08:42 AM
Well, I for one would willingly spend the rest of my life (and non-existent income) insulating the loft if it meant I would never have to go to Benidorm ...  But to be fair, given a choice between visiting (say) Bhutan (or the Galapagos Islands) and insulating the loft, the roof could come off and I wouldn't care :)
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: jalfreziT on March 24, 2019, 10:20 AM
Nice reply about Benidorm  ;D

Thinking about another angle, and taking out our own individual choices, I think that future generations are basically screwed anyway. And climate change is only one potential part of that.

If you look at government, religious or social policy worldwide, it's mostly about increasing the population. Either getting people to have more children or making sure the existing population live as long as possible. More people just means more pollution and more drain on limited resources. It's just not going to end well, whether there is climate change or not.

And perversely, increased CO2 levels might be exactly the thing we need in the future, to help increase crop yields to feed all those extra people.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on March 24, 2019, 10:30 AM
If you look at government, religious or social policy worldwide, it's mostly about increasing the population.

Not entirely sure that is accurate.  More, I think, that there is widespread acceptance that limiting a family's choice as to how many children to have is not acceptable, and therefore "we" must ensure that no matter how many are born there will be adequate housing (etc) for them.  To the detriment of our countryside, of course, but only the CPRE, "real" farmers (as opposed to those who farm purely for profit) and the odd informed individual care about that ,,,
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: jalfreziT on March 24, 2019, 10:55 AM
If you look at government, religious or social policy worldwide, it's mostly about increasing the population.

Not entirely sure that is accurate. 

It's actually a bit difficult for me to defend my statement, without spending the rest of the day copy/pasting exerts of policy from around the world.

But just taking countries close by here in Europe, governments have gone to incredible lengths to get people to breed more. Russia offered draw entry to win prizes of white goods and cars to parents., Hungary offered zero income tax for life to those who had 4 or more kids, Denmark has had TV advertising to encourage Danes to "breed for Denmark", the Nordics offer large child benefits and subsidised day care. The story is similar in Hong Kong, Korea, India, Japan, etc, etc.

I shouldn't have to go in to detail about the religious policies which support increasing population.

Expanding more, much foreign aid is linked to stopping people dying, reducing childhood mortality, reducing diseases, etc. For sure that's a good thing, but at the same time it does increase world population.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on March 24, 2019, 11:08 AM
Just taking countries close by here in Europe, governments have gone to incredible lengths to get people to breed more. Russia offered draw entry to win prizes of white goods and cars to parents., Hungary offered zero income tax for life to those who had 4 or more kids, Denmark has had TV advertising to encourage Danes to "breed for Denmark", the Nordics offer large child benefits and subsidised day care. The story is similar in Hong Kong, Korea, India, Japan, etc, etc.

OMG.  Total insanity/irresponsibility.

Quote
Expanding more, much foreign aid is linked to stopping people dying, reducing childhood mortality, reducing diseases, etc. For sure that's a good thing, but at the same time it does increase world population.

Agreed.  Essential for the individual, bad for the world.

** Phil.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: martinvic on March 24, 2019, 11:25 AM
Can I ask when you say Theories, do you mean Scientific Theories?
Because they are two completely different things, so 'Just a theory' often wrongly gets used in these arguments.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on March 24, 2019, 11:36 AM
Can I ask when you say Theories, do you mean Scientific Theories? Because they are two completely different things, so 'Just a theory' often wrongly gets used in these arguments.

I wouldn't agree that they are "completely different things"; rather (to my mind) they represent different points on a continuum.  At one end of the spectrum (p tends to zero), one person formulates a theory based purely on his or her personal experience and observations; at the other end (p tends to one), the theory is based on repeatable observations by a significant number of reliable observers.  Evolution is "just a theory", as is the existence of God, but whilst there is greater evidence for the former than for the latter, p is neither equal to one in the first case nor to zero in the second.

** Phil.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: chewytikka on March 24, 2019, 12:14 PM
Yes, I agree Climate Change is REAL.
Change in general is a natural evolution.

Just like today, you can sit down to a far better curry than
you could possibly eat in the 70s.

cheers Chewy
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: martinvic on March 24, 2019, 12:44 PM
Can I ask when you say Theories, do you mean Scientific Theories? Because they are two completely different things, so 'Just a theory' often wrongly gets used in these arguments.

I wouldn't agree that they are "completely different things"; rather (to my mind) they represent different points on a continuum.  At one end of the spectrum (p tends to zero), one person formulates a theory based purely on his or her personal experience and observations; at the other end (p tends to one), the theory is based on repeatable observations by a significant number of reliable observers.  Evolution is "just a theory", as is the existence of God, but whilst there is greater evidence for the former than for the latter, p is neither equal to one in the first case nor to zero in the second.

** Phil.

No Phil just No, but you have given a good example of a normal Theory.

Evolution is a 'Scientific theory', not 'just a Theory', Please look it up

God? Where to start, Which God/Gods do you refer to? Belief systems, with no evidence, so based purely on faith.
Totally irrelevant to these arguments so not sure why it comes up

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/just-a-theory-7-misused-science-words/

Anyway I'm out
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on March 24, 2019, 12:58 PM
Well, sorry, but I (continue to) disagree.  Just because a theory is supported by mainstream science, it is still "just" a theory; it doesn't gain extra credence just because you preface it with "Scientific".  If ever evolution were/could be incontravertibly proven, it would cease to be a theory and become a fact; until then, it remains "just" a theory, no matter what additional adjectives you choose to use with it.  I believe in evolution, I don't believe in God, but both are just theories to which one can subscribe or not as one chooses [1].

** Phil.
--------
[1] Unless, of course, one lives in a community where belief in God (no matter what name is actually  used) is mandated by the state and ruthlessly enforced.  In the time of Galileo Galilei, belief in a terracentric universe was similarly mandated and enforced — most but not all communities have moved on a little since then.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: chewytikka on March 24, 2019, 01:28 PM
Obviously all Kris Dhillons fault ::)

Did you know that Billions of the worlds population, have not and probably will never cook on gas.

They live and die cooking on a Chula or even more basic open fires, fuelled by wood or dried cow dung.

cheers Chewy
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: jonnie63 on August 04, 2019, 12:35 PM
If you look at government, religious or social policy worldwide, it's mostly about increasing the population.

Not entirely sure that is accurate.  More, I think, that there is widespread acceptance that limiting a family's choice as to how many children to have is not acceptable, and therefore "we" must ensure that no matter how many are born there will be adequate housing (etc) for them.  To the detriment of our countryside, of course, but only the CPRE, "real" farmers (as opposed to those who farm purely for profit) and the odd informed individual care about that ,,,

I think it depends on what you mean by limiting - if you mean government and laws then I think most people would agree - that path would seem to lead to despots and tyrants.

However I strongly believe that there are an increasing number of people who want to promote a general awareness that we cannot continue to grow in numbers and expect everything to simply be ok and there is a lot more to this argument than simply climate change, it also hinges on resources and not all resources are renewable. I would certainly like to see more thought about people having smaller families not because they are made to have smaller families but because they choose to have smaller families.

We should not think all solutions will come just from better and better technology - right now we are riding on a wave of eco-optimism because electric cars are becoming viable and we can presumably all drive around on wind turbine powered cars with no harm to planet Earth? Well yes and no ! Lithium is a finite resource and yet demand is going to rocket as we all expect electric battery powered cars. Its just to easy to cast our responsibilities in the direction of technology, make a few personal concessions and hope its all going to be ok.

We do not and probably cannot ever hope to use the worlds resources in a completely renewable and recyclable fashion - there is a fundamental thing here called entropy - put simply it is very easy to put milk into coffee and to mix it evenly but it is extremely difficult to un-mix the milk and coffee to get back to the two things you started with. There are parallels with the way we use the worlds resources - we often mix, distribute and combine either chemically or physically in such a way that it is very hard to get back to the raw ingredients through a recycling process and then go off and manufacture something entirely different.

The only sure way to reduce or slow down our impact on the planet is to have fewer people and its better that reasonable liberal people find reasonable ways to influence and persuade rather than leaving it too late so that extremists and people with other agendas. I would suggest that the rise of extreme and populist politicians who appear to have only a thin veneer of (questionable) respectability hiding either a personal agenda of intolerance or a wish to exploit people easily lead in that direction is in part a reaction to the pressure ordinary people feel in their perceptions of a shrinking world with more demand and competition for resources and a feeling that "if we do not grab our part of the pie now someone else will". 

We find a way of talking about population growth in a way that does not judge or alienate, a way that does not open the door for extremists and people loaded with hatred or tribalism but we do need to talk about it and find ways to show everyone that we all need to look carefully at population growth and that does mean at least trying to simultaneously be non-judgemental and yet face the fact that on average we need to aim for the target of each adult in their lifetime having two or fewer offspring.

Whatever we do we must not subscribe to the hopeless panacea of relying just on technology to fix everything.



 









Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: jonnie63 on August 04, 2019, 01:19 PM
Just because a theory is supported by mainstream science, it is still "just" a theory; it doesn't gain extra credence just because you preface it with "Scientific".  If ever evolution were/could be incontravertibly proven, it would cease to be a theory and become a fact; until then, it remains "just" a theory, no matter what additional adjectives you choose to use with it.

Actually Phil I think the word scientific does add credence and for the record I was a research scientist in the early parts of my career. I take the tag "scientific" to imply that we are talking about the scientific method.

The cycle here is

Observation
Theory and prediction
Verification by experiment - analysis of errors and willingness to reformulate theories

I assume it is widely accepted that some scientists have in the past been rewarded for adopting certain viewpoints - for instance scientists paid by tobacco corporations who have denied the link between cancer and smoking, however my understanding of the academic world suggests to me that a very healthy proportion of scientists are not biased in this fashion.

What truly separates healthy science from religion is the willingness to admit that our current theory is not quite right and the willingness to refine it or in some cases to throw it out altogether based on new reproducible observation and measurement often those new measurements being in some way more accurate or extending into newer territories that were previously not possible.

In my own field of Physics there have been numerous wrong turns but against this a very successful history of refinement - Issac Newton is many respects was and is still correct - Relativity can be seen as a refinement, Very often scientists do not get it 100% wrong - they get it "nearly right" - a great deal of science is about refinement, about a process of continual improvement. Indeed if you take Einsteins relativistic equations and adjust them for moderate speeds then you get Newtons laws of motion - it is just too simplistic to ever say Newton got it wrong he just did not have access to the same experimental observations that Einstein had access to - but most importantly Newtons theories served just about any application or decision that could have been made in Newton's day so they served society perfectly.

Some people like to "poooh pooh" science when the implications dont suit their personal viewpoint - people who like driving gas guzzlers rarely like to hear about climate change but the scientific method in its purest form is simply the best possible answer we can come up with right now. It is not "wrong" in the sense of "yeah I heard scientists said this ten years ago and now they say this - you cannot believe scientists" - it is the best guidance we have at any particular moment.

Sure you need to watch out for the scientists who have a personal agenda and ones who just make mistakes or aren't very good but one the whole if you listen to the majority verdict ( or wait for one if no consensus currently exists ) then you will be acting on the best and most informed knowledge currently available and knowledge that is  based whenever possible on actual measurement and reproduction of results - scientific papers are published in part so that other scientists in other institutions can confirm that they also make the same measurements or can agree with the same results.

Problem is that people who don't like the implications of climate change think a few scribbles on the back of a beer mat and a few hand waving  anecdotal observations can stand against a body of scientific work - sure there may be a maverick scientist out there who does prove everyone else wrong with something written on the back of a beer mat but we know that most people trying to set the record straight on the back of a beer mat most likely know nothing very useful knowing about climate change.

Its strange that people who seem to have little faith in science will gladly use and indeed trust their lives with a rapidly advancing collection of technologies all around them which have arisen directly from the scientific method - they may think quantum physics is a load of wierd non-sense except for the fact that they are using devices that only work because of quantum effects everyday of their life - science has been remarkably successful at explaining our world and enabling us to do all sorts of amazing things that were not imagined by our parents - the only thing here that is really amazing is the number of people who think they know better.
 




 






 


 



 
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: jonnie63 on August 04, 2019, 02:02 PM
Quote

But just taking countries close by here in Europe, governments have gone to incredible lengths to get people to breed more. Russia offered draw entry to win prizes of white goods and cars to parents., Hungary offered zero income tax for life to those who had 4 or more kids, Denmark has had TV advertising to encourage Danes to "breed for Denmark", the Nordics offer large child benefits and subsidised day care. The story is similar in Hong Kong, Korea, India, Japan, etc, etc.

Hmmmm - I take it you are not Danish.

My wife is Danish and I lived in Denmark myself for five years, I could not believe your bit about "encourage Danes to 'breed for Denmark' - so I asked my wife and she howled with laughter - she had tears in her eyes. 

She showed me a series of  TV adverts which she thinks is the one responsible.


This is from a travel agency called Spies travel - its a complete piss take, the premise is that the parents fear that they may never get grandchildren so the travel agent is suggesting that wanna-be-grandparents send their adult children on holidays so that they can rest and de-stress and do activities that improve sex drive so that they have more chance of producing grandchildren. Its pure comedy - sarcastic and not to be taken seriously.

If you read carefully through the leads that show what the worlds press made of this you will perhaps come away with the impression that many did not fully understand the tongue in cheek nature of the advertising campaign, that a there was slight increase in birth rates but that few people seriously think it was actually down to the advertising campaign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do_it_for_Denmark

My wife is reasonably confident that there has been no serious TV advert on Danish television promoting population growth, admittedly she has lived outside the country for the last four years but since her parents are currently staying with us I asked them as well and they said they were unaware of any serious campaign of the nature you mention - all they could think of was the spoof TV campaign covered above.

I could be wrong but in the age of fake news and more innocently misinterpretation due to us having increasing access to selected snippets and translations of media from cultures and languages we may not understand that the Danish angle you mention above might belong in the basket labelled "not properly understood due to language and cultural differences".  If I am right and you have got the wrong end of the stick then I feel its a good example of how careful we all need to be when we react to tweets, soundbytes and snippets of media taken from around the world, often misunderstood and taken out of context.

My wife also says that there HAS been a serious TV campaign to get first time Mums to conceive earlier in life because there has been a gradual trend to late motherhood later in life and there are concerns over complications. The advice was not to have more children but to have children earlier in life to avoid complications.

Actually researchers at Copenhagen university are suggesting we need to seriously consider limiting population growth if we want to do something serious about climate change....





 
 


Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on August 04, 2019, 09:26 PM
A splendid series of responses, Jonnie — great to see some informed debate taking place here, regardless of whether or not it is even tangentially related to BIR ...  Just to clarify, I was not suggesting for one second that (e.g.,) evolution is imaginary, or counter-factual; rather that, all the while something is accepted as being a theory (even a scientific theory), rather than a fact, then it must remain a theory until it can be proven with 100% certainty  All of the available evidence suggests that evolution is a fact, but we are not in a position to prove that it is a fact, since there has been no direct observation of it taking place; the probability that evolution is a fact is some long way along the 0.9 recurring continuum, but it is not 1.0

** Phil.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Ghoulie on August 06, 2019, 10:31 AM
Climate change has always been with us and always will be and change systematically - nature alone sees to that- plenty of written articles on the various warm phases, CO2 levels, ice ages etc. in the history of Earth  Human population increase ensures we contribute to any change.  Human excess population is depleting the planet of all resources at an unsustainable rate.  Until ignorance & religious dogma  is eradicated and replaced by education and greed / dominance surpressed - conflict will always get in the way of overcoming the human population contributory excesses.
Think of a problem - any problem - and the cause is usually down to too many people.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: livo on August 06, 2019, 11:47 AM
I watched an interesting piece of TV this morning about protein (meat) substitutes. Mmm, tastes just like chick'n. Soylent green Madras anybody?
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on August 06, 2019, 11:58 AM
I watched an interesting piece of TV this morning about protein (meat) substitutes. Mmm, tastes just like chick'n. Soylent green Madras anybody?

Fine by me — we serve vegetarian chicken on request at my wife's hotel, and to my taste buds it is a very good replica in appropriate dishes.  Not sure it would work as a roast, though — at least, not until an accompanying vegetarian chicken skin is available.

** Phil.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Ghoulie on August 06, 2019, 02:04 PM
many years back working on a concrete works trial in Gloucester area, got to the works canteen very late at the death of serving lunch.  All they had left were TVP 'pork' chops.  Ate them - and must say they tasted like pork, had the texture of pork and were even shaped like pork.  If you were blindfolded - you would not have known they were TVP instead of the real McCoy.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: jalfreziT on August 08, 2019, 12:03 PM
Quote

But just taking countries close by here in Europe, governments have gone to incredible lengths to get people to breed more. Russia offered draw entry to win prizes of white goods and cars to parents., Hungary offered zero income tax for life to those who had 4 or more kids, Denmark has had TV advertising to encourage Danes to "breed for Denmark", the Nordics offer large child benefits and subsidised day care. The story is similar in Hong Kong, Korea, India, Japan, etc, etc.

Hmmmm - I take it you are not Danish.

I could be wrong but in the age of fake news and more innocently misinterpretation due to us having increasing access to selected snippets and translations of media from cultures and languages we may not understand that the Danish angle you mention above might belong in the basket labelled "not properly understood due to language and cultural differences".  If I am right and you have got the wrong end of the stick then I feel its a good example of how careful we all need to be when we react to tweets, soundbytes and snippets of media taken from around the world, often misunderstood and taken out of contex

I am not Danish.

I had heard about the “breed for Danmark” campaign somewhere or other. Like most things one hears or reads, very few people bother to go back to primary sources to validate them, nor survey real life Danes to check their interpretation of the story. Whether the Danish case is real or not, I don’t know. But it’s relatively unimportant in the wider point I was trying to make. However, having a Danish wife, I do understand and appreciate your efforts to provide input. So thanks.

I am more interested in your comments on fake news and media interpretation. Takes an angle off that, and my own reception of the Danish breeding message, how can we be sure that the media message on climate change is correct and accurate? E.g. I wonder why this study (and a recent and similar Japanese  study) have not been widely reported in the MSM.  https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.00165.pdf

For those who can’t be arsed to read the whole thing, it found that whilst the climate is indeed changing, the impact from humans on that change is negligible.

Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on August 08, 2019, 06:40 PM
I wonder why this study (and a recent and similar Japanese  study) have not been widely reported in the MSM.  https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.00165.pdf

Perhaps I am missing something, but is there any evidence that this "paper" has been peer-reviewed and published in any journal with academic/scientific credibility ?

** Phil.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Bob-A-Job on August 09, 2019, 03:28 AM
Hi all,

I started this thread a while ago as a means to engage people in debate, maybe to get some new information and if the effects would have any impact on us curry lovers.

Since I started it, we have debated 'is climate change happening' and yes, every day the climate is different, hold your hand out or look up but since we are so short lived, in terms of the planet, can we comment on our influence?

I would suggest (no scientific theory or fact right now) that the rise in consumption of land, air, sea resources by 7bil people now walking the planet, compared to only 1bil people just 200 years ago (in geological terms), that we ARE having a massive effect but the results are not immediately evident.  The planet is huge, it resources likewise, the enertia caused by changes may be slow.. but it is likely also very slow to stop and if I may take a very simplistic view, Do we have 200 years left to reverse the changes?

I have read about 'tipping points' and 'resource wars' and I thought they were fantastical but maybe our real fight is with corporate businesses that care not for long term planet resources but only with short term monetary gains.

We could all drive an electric car, but we won't, because the supply of Lithium to make the batteries to hold the charge is finite and running out... so we need another solution.. such as... we ALL don't drive and we hand all of our travel over to a few electric powered transport providers? No? In the current climate, we want everybody else to stop driving to reduce congestion, as long as it is not us!

Peoples cannot see that we are in the crisis position, that we need to hand over control to a few for the benefit of us all, partly because we do not realise we have to start now and mainly becuase we do not trust THEM, the same businesses that are possibly only thinking short term, for their shareholders and adding to the problem.

My thoughts.

And on more curry related terms, I might be able to grow a curry leaf tree, other chillies that I normally only grow indoors have done well for the last few months in my flexible outdoor greenhouse structure.  I just need to find a plant, to start.

BAJ
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: jalfreziT on August 09, 2019, 04:42 AM
I wonder why this study (and a recent and similar Japanese  study) have not been widely reported in the MSM.  https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.00165.pdf

Perhaps I am missing something, but is there any evidence that this "paper" has been peer-reviewed and published in any journal with academic/scientific credibility ?

** Phil.

Phil, from your reply I am guessing you googled for info around this particular paper. Yes it has been criticised by the “establishment” climate change “experts”, who said it hasn’t been peer reviewed.

Question: Do you not find it to be just a little suspicious that the only information most people ever read or hear about climate change, carries exactly the same one-sided message? There are numerous studies and scientific experts who question that message or even disagree with the whole thing. But most people never hear about those.....
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: jalfreziT on August 09, 2019, 04:55 AM
I should add that I am no “climate change denier”. More a “suspicious consumer of MSM narrative”.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on August 09, 2019, 08:11 AM
Phil, from your reply I am guessing you googled for info around this particular paper. Yes it has been criticised by the “establishment” climate change “experts”, who said it hasn’t been peer reviewed.

What I actually did was to try to establish where it had originally been published, expecting the answer to be Nature or something similar.  The search was fruitless, because it has never been published (sensu stricto) at all; it has merely been uploaded to Arxiv.  In the absence of any process of peer review, then IMHO it is not worth the paper on which it is [not] written — it is merely the opinion of its authors who, if they feel that it deserves wider circulation, should submit it to Nature or similar for peer review and possible publication.

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Question: Do you not find it to be just a little suspicious that the only information most people ever read or hear about climate change, carries exactly the same one-sided message?

Suspicious ?  No.  No more "suspicious" than almost everything published supports the theory of evolution as opposed to the theory of divine creation.  One should expect the vast majority of published works to support the most probable scenario/theory, whilst a minority will support competing hypotheses.

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There are numerous studies and scientific experts who question that message or even disagree with the whole thing. But most people never hear about those...

Yes, there are both such studies and such experts, and when those studies are published in peer-reviewed academic journals then they are most certainly worthy of consideration.  But very few are.

** Phil.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: jalfreziT on August 10, 2019, 07:26 AM
Phil, there is a huge amount of peer reviewed stuff out there that questions the causes of CC.

But you will never see it in publications like Nature, because it doesn’t fit their agenda.

And that is my point. Most people are either too stupid, or too lazy, or just too busy to dig deeply in to this subject. They take “trusted” sources like BBC, The Guardian, SkyNews, DW, Le Monde, TWP, etc. At face value and base their own opinions on those sources.

I’ll step out of the thread now. Not because I don’t find the debate interesting, but i’m Just too busy :(
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on August 10, 2019, 10:49 AM
"Afore ye go" — Could you point me at some small part of this " huge amount of peer-reviewed stuff out there that questions the causes of CC" ?  IMHO, Nature does not have "an agenda" — it publishes what its reviewers recommend, and rejects what its reviewers reject.  Perhaps some reviewers have an agenda (this is almost certainly the case) but others do not and will give an honest assessment of any paper submitted for possible publication.

** Phil.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: jalfreziT on August 10, 2019, 02:30 PM
Phil, Please forgive me if I don’t. It takes too much time. If you take that as an indication that my points are groundless, that’s perfectly ok. It’s all the same to me.  :)

If you have spare time, you can always look for some yourself. Maybe worth trying different search engines, as some search engine algorithms may prioritise some results and sources.

I feel bad to leave the debate, again.. but there are three outcomes in these “internet discussion” situations:

1. The other person one is debating has pre-conceived opinions that can never be changed.
2. The other person realises that everything they believed before might not be totally true and gets angry, defensive, or worse.
3.  The other person realises that everything they believed in before might not be totally true and sends you 100£ as thanks.

Whatever the result, I can afford my own beer this weekend. Enjoy yours :)

Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on August 10, 2019, 03:09 PM
[T]here are three outcomes in these “internet discussion” situations:

1. The other person one is debating has pre-conceived opinions that can never be changed.
2. The other person realises that everything they believed before might not be totally true and gets angry, defensive, or worse.
3.  The other person realises that everything they believed in before might not be totally true and sends you 100£ as thanks.

I think that there are more.  The other person may (for example) believe that climate change is (a) real, and (b) at least in part, a result of human activity (or. in the case of governments, lack of activity).  But that same person may be perfectly willing to accept that there are peer-reviewed papers, published in reputable academic journals, that appear to contradict these beliefs.

When such a person is told "there is a huge amount of peer-reviewed stuff out there that questions the causes of CC", then the most probable response is "I believe you.  But as you are already aware of this stuff, and I am not, can you point me at some of it, please".  If the other party then responds "Please forgive me if I don’t. It takes too much time", then the first person is  likely to respond "OK, if it is too much trouble, then that's fine by me.  Whilst I'm very open to being shewn evidence that contradicts my beliefs, I'm far less inclined to blindly accept a statement along the lines of 'the evidence is out there, but you'll need to search for it'".  I therefore make that response.

** Phil.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: swandro on August 12, 2019, 03:26 PM
There is a book of essays written by climate change sceptics. Go to Amazon and look for James Delingpole. You will see his book called "Climate Change - The Facts". 4 quid for a Kindle book.  It will give you an insight into the views and arguments put forward by the sceptics.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Garp on August 12, 2019, 05:41 PM
You would really want us to believe a prick like Delingpole, or any of his cronies, over countless scientists?

** edited by admin: unnecessary rudeness **
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: Peripatetic Phil on August 12, 2019, 09:19 PM
There is a book of essays written by climate change sceptics. Go to Amazon and look for James Delingpole. You will see his book called "Climate Change - The Facts".

The fact that someone calls their book "X - The Facts" does not, of itself, meany anything.  Anyone can claim to write "the facts", but whether or not something truly is factual is best judged by others, not by the author.

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It will give you an insight into the views and arguments put forward by the sceptics.

I do not dispute for one second dispute that the sceptics have sincerely-held views; however, unless and until they are willing to submit those views to peer review, they remain just views.  For myself, I prefer to believe those who do submit their ideas for peer review, and in particular those whose works are acknowledged by their peers as being of outstanding merit.  I do not think that Mr Delingpole's work meets either of these criteria.

** Phil.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: livo on August 14, 2019, 11:37 PM
You would really want us to believe a prick like Delingpole, or any of his cronies, over countless scientists?


I didn't get that from Swandro's post at all.  He's not saying it is "fact". He is merely pointing out that the collection of essays exists. I can tell you the bible and the koran exist. That doesn't mean I believe or have even read them.  When considering anything it is important to obtain a balanced view of the countering sides of the argument.  Simply believing scientists because they are scientists is a bit sheepish.  Peer review is not necessarily scrutinising.  Scientific and medical studies can and have been deliberately structured to obtain the desired outcome.  Powerful and wealthy people and governments have vested interests and the little man will never truly know if he is being fed real information or propaganda.

We are presently copping the best antarctic blasts we've had in years.  -1'C at my house in the lower Hunter Valley 2 nights ago and 0'C last night with only 2 weeks of winter to go.  I would say though that our winters generally, are not a cold as 20 years ago and our summers are hot as they have always been.  Recent record breaking heat in the northern hemisphere is certainly suggesting climate change exists for sure.  Anthropogenic or not and / or  to what degree, who really knows?   Try to tell China and India they can't burn coal.

If the vast majority of the educated global population is of the consensus that we are the cause of the problem, then we are certainly dragging the chain in doing anything about it.  I believe the biggest problem is not just the activities of humans but the sheer number of us on the planet.  When dealing with farmed animals, the biggest contributing factor to healthy survival is the size of the populated area in relation to the population.  It doesn't matter if the area and feed is easily sufficient, but tip it the other way just a little bit and you have big problems.
Title: Re: Is Climate Change real?
Post by: mickyp on August 15, 2019, 11:42 AM
You dont need to be a rocket scientist to know the climate is getting warmer, no more perma frost to kill the ants, frozen cream not forming mushrooms on milk bottles, 1963 we had snow on the ground from boxing day to April.
Like a big train once it gets out of control stopping it before it comes off the rails is not going to be easy and we i feel are loading it up for our kids to stop.