Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Peripatetic Phil]

Very sweet, Garp

[livo]

It would appear my earlier condemnations of WHO were not too extreme. Incompetence is the word that jumps out for me. Even add extreme. Of course cover up and blame shifting are good as well.  It must be somebody else's fault.  Conspiracy theories are good fun and they spring up here and there.  Regardless of your bent, it would seem that for the first time ever, D. Trump has nailed it.  WHO blew it big time.  Dropped the ball. Spilt the lollies.

[Peripatetic Phil]

I have read DT's accusations [1] (of "favouring China", and so on), and immediately dismissed them as yet more typical Trumpesque, arrogant, America

[livo]

I'm not suggesting Trump's prolific verbal diarrhoea is anything otherwise Phil. His claim that the WHO "really blew it" is a pretty good assessment.  That's all. The organisation charged with oversight of these matters stalled and procrastinated and denied there was a global health crisis until it bit them on the nose. They only had one job here.  The general public around the world could see this exploding on a daily basis. Our Government closed the borders to Chinese travel against WHO recomendations, along with others, and was chastised for doing so, on global economic terms by the organisation charged with looking after health. 

It turns out closing the borders when we did was a good call but it didn't go far enough soon enough.  Italy, Iran, Spain, the USA and the cruise ships were already in full Covid-19 bloom.  The borders should have been a total lock out with the exception of returning citizens and essential travel, all going into quarantine, as is now the case.  Too late but hopefully in the nick of time for us.  Others countries, including the UK, have not been as fortunate as us.  We are seeing comparatively low numbers but it is too early to declare we've dodged the bullet and some of the stupid behaviour by individuals is nothing short of mind boggling.

The WHO was too slow to close the gate.  The beauty of hindsight.  I don't have the answers Phil and nobody knows where this is headed in either health or economic terms. I just happen to agree with Trump's simple 3 words, "really blew it".

Would a week have made any significant difference anyway?  https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-who-refuses-to-name-doctors-who-blocked-early-health-emergency/news-story/1850b1e4178e4f4b9013797e51bce2f5

[Peripatetic Phil]

Each of us will have his/her/its own view as to whether WHO could have done anything more, so let us agree to disagree on that one.  What I find slightly reassuring is that the percentage increase of Covid-19 cases is diminishing in the UK.  Here are the daily increases for the month of April so far :

•   17.19%
•   14.40%
•   13.20%
•   09.78%
•   14.08%
•   07.95%
•   07.04%
•   09.94%

The highest figure for this month (17.19%) is comparable with the mean daily increase (17.68%) since the commencement of the outbreak,  but in real terms that means that we are seeing over 5000 new cases per day and that figure shews no real signs of abating.  Below are the per-day increase in the UK for the month of April :

•   4,324
•   4,244
•   4,450
•   3,735
•   5,914
•   3,802
•   3,634
•   5,491

** Phil.

[livo]

Social distancing.  Similar restrained growth is evident in most places where society has adopted it. Even better figures are coming from countries with enforced action.  The good thing with those figures is the trend away from clear exponential growth where the percentage that's important is the compounded percentage of the previous day's growth rather than the reported total cases.

We are seeing similar 'hopeful' trends here but early days.  While my own state is hoping for early relaxation of strict control, Victoria is still entertaining level 4 restrictions.  Close to home yesterday saw a local 'outbreak' at our regional hospital, with 2 patients, 6 staff and 4 close contacts all testing positive.  How far this spreads is unknown.  While ever there is one person infectious and many without immunity, it is not over.

I was speaking with my mate K yesterday who returned from India just after Christmas.  He said quite simply if it gets going over there it will be uncontrolled.

On the previous Phil, I think Tedros stating that WHO is made up of people who make mistakes is an admission of sorts that mistakes were made.  Within the organisation there were people who thought action was required and they were out-voted.  It is of little importance now.

It was interesting to read last night that the 'intelligence' agencies detected unusual 'red flags' over parts of Wuhan as early as mid November 2019, but there were difficulties in getting the message out.  Apparently there were noticeable changes in civil activity in parts of the city, whatever that means in China.

[Peripatetic Phil]

On the previous Phil, I think Tedros stating that WHO is made up of people who make mistakes is an admission of sorts that mistakes were made.  Within the organisation there were people who thought action was required and they were out-voted.  It is of little importance now.

That is certainly one way of interpreting it.  However, if someone were to claim that  "XXX is made up of people who never make mistakes", what credence would you ascribe to that claim ?

It was interesting to read last night that the 'intelligence' agencies detected unusual 'red flags' over parts of Wuhan as early as mid November 2019, but there were difficulties in getting the message out.  Apparently there were noticeable changes in civil activity in parts of the city, whatever that means in China

If you can point me to the source, I can raise it on a forum where more will be known.

** Phil.

[livo]

When you put any old driver behind a wheel, there is human error. When you put any old pilot in a cockpit, there is human error. When you put a captain inside a boat, wearing a hat, there is human error.  Usually the failure of a human in these scenarios results in death or disturbance on a relatively small scale. Accidents happen. Earthquakes, floods, tornadoes and other natural disasters etc are a bit trickier to assign blame. Sometimes there is no blame.

As a traveller to sea in a small boat I have taken the risk, with my own young son. In my own mind I had excluded the risk and always returned safely to shore, much to his mother's relief.   On occasion it could have been different.

When people are elevated to positions of global imperative, human error is not an acceptable excuse.  It is their job to circumvent human error.

If the XXX was not up to the job,  what is the point of them being there?  What use is a bucket with no bottom when the boat is taking water?

I'll point you to the news article in the morning Phil.

[JonG]

This article perhaps?

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-leaked-intelligence-report-shows-us-was-warned-about-covid19-in-november/news-story/f46254a64f98f393d9935585611fa77b

It sounds like a highly dubious tale to me. No doubt briefed to a friendly US news outlet by the American spooks, perhaps on the defensive as they

[Peripatetic Phil]

OK, let's just take this extract from the article :

Alert bulletins were circulated through confidential channels around Thanksgiving (November 26). From then through December, briefings were given to all levels of the US federal government and intelligence agencies.



Wuhan quickly became the epicentre of the outbreak. Picture: STR / AFP Source:AFP

The text and the caption are intended to suggest that the photograph was taken in Wuhan in November 2019, yet a Google search reveals no copy of that image older than three days ...

P.S.  Sometimes there is surprising good news amongst the bad and the awful ...